Abstract
Estimating individual tree Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) is essential for assessing ecological functions and carbon storage in both forest and urban environments. Traditional field-based methods, such as plot measurements, are costly and impractical for large-scale applications. However, satellite- and aerial-based techniques lack the spatial resolution for individual-tree-level analysis. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data, combined with machine learning (ML), offers a powerful alternative for detailed tree structure measurement and AGB estimation. Leveraging advances in deep-learning-based individual tree detection and geometric structure estimation including Height (H), Surface Area (SA), Volume (V), and Crown Width (CW), this study develops ML regression models for estimating individual tree AGB. We explore three objectives: (1) evaluating four regression models including Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN); (2) sensitivity assessment of different geometric feature combinations on model accuracy; and (3) improving model robustness using Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) data augmentation for addressing imbalanced data. Results show that the RF model outperforms others that achieved the lowest RMSE and most balanced residual distribution. CW was the strongest single predictor of AGB and, in combination with H, yielded to the most accurate results. This combination improved RMSE and R2 by 14.2% and 89.3% with respect to single-variable-based models. The integration of SMOTE and RF further improved model performance since it lowered RMSE by 225.6 kg (~22.1%) and increased R2 by 0.76 (~49.0%). This was particularly evident in underrepresented low and high AGB ranges. The proposed RF-SMOTE approach is a cost-effective and scalable approach for generating high-quality ground truth data to enable large-scale satellite-based biomass estimation and help forest carbon accounting and planning in cities and forests.