Abstract
New York State’s forests face many challenges, including climate change. Impacts of climate change include altering the suitability of species’ current habitat and potential range shifts. Species distribution models can be used to predict current or future species ranges using environmental and biotic predictor variables. This study applied species distribution modeling to FIA data to predict how tree species composition across New York State may change under future climate conditions. This study focused on potential shifts for important tree species of the maple-beech-birch forests. Logistic regression modeling predicted possible significant changes in habitat suitability of sugar maple and yellow birch under most climate change scenarios. Black cherry and red maple are predicted to be more resilient, maintaining more suitable habitat. American beech was not modeled successfully and predictions are uncertain. These results indicate that significant changes may occur within the maple-beech-birch forests of New York State over the coming decades.