Abstract
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) has been identified as a major driver of global change due its pervasive effect on biogeochemical processes, biological productivity and biodiversity. Despite the great progress in predicting land use change, the underlying dynamics that sustain a given LULCC trend remain poorly understood. Chile is often seen as an example of afforestation policy and forest recovery. Using a social-ecological multi-disciplinary approach this study analyzes causes and consequences of current afforestation policy in Chile. First, an Advocacy Coalition Framework analysis of the Native Forest Conservation Law (1992-2008) suggests that dictatorship legacies in Chile remained strong enough to avoid a major policy change, even though the coalition advocating a major policy change became stronger, more diverse, and able to exploit external events skillfully in favor of conservation interests. Second, different policy proposals, as advocated by different policy coalitions, were translated into land use maps for a watershed in Araucanía region. This study did not find major differences among policy scenarios. Such lack of differences is related to the economic dynamics of afforestation in Chile, as well as to the specific characteristics of the analyzed watershed. Third, an ecosystem services assessment was conducted for a conservation policy scenario and observed land use change (1993-2007). Using a literature review, each land use was assessed in terms of its capacity to provide ecosystem services. I found that a conservation scenario would have implied gains in ecosystem services for a watershed in Araucanía. Fifth, to understand deeper processes of policy construction, a critical discourse analysis was used. This study identified five discourses regarding forest policy. Main differences among discourses are related to the acknowledgement of individual property. Lastly, results of the different analyses are integrated through an adaptive framework including a discussion of the broader implications for land use policy, conservation, and forest transitions. This research suggests that rather than an afforestation panacea, Chile's afforestation case provides insights on the implications of short-term success for long term social-ecological adaptive capacity.