Abstract
This dissertation presents a comprehensive, spatially explicit assessment of the potential for purposegrown shrub willow (Salix spp.) to support New York State’s (NYS) climate mitigation goals under the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). The study employs an integrated modeling framework—combining multi-criteria land suitability analysis, spatial life cycle assessment (LCA), and techno-economic analysis (TEA) to evaluate the environmental and economic viability of willow-based bioenergy systems with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). A fuzzy logic land suitability model identified 1.07 to 1.59 million hectares of marginal or underutilized land in NYS suitable for willow cultivation. These lands, primarily grasslands, herbaceous zones, and shrublands, could sustainably produce 14 to 20.6 million dry megagrams (Mg) of biomass annually without displacing food production.
LCA results show that willow cultivation delivers net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, averaging −136.20 (±20.8) kg CO₂-eq per Mg of dry biomass. Belowground carbon sequestration and soil organic carbon (SOC) enhancement were the primary contributors to these negative emissions, with localized SOC gains ranging from 0.09 to 0.42 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. The TEA evaluated four BiCRS pathway electricity and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), each with and without CCS. Electricity with CCS achieved
the highest net CO₂ removal (49.7 MtCO₂ yr⁻¹) at the lowest marginal abatement cost ($85/tCO₂), far below NYS’s social cost of carbon ($130–$360/tCO₂). SAF with CCS, while more expensive ($157–206/tCO₂), remains essential for decarbonizing aviation and showed strong market viability, generating $2.2 billion in co-product revenues. Deployment modeling identified 42 viable facility sites for each CCSenabled pathway, confirming scalability. If implemented, E-CCS could offset ~20% of 2030 and >80% of
2050 statewide emissions. SAF-CCS alone could offset 2.5-times NYS aviation emissions. The study concludes that NYS can meet its CLCPA Scenario 2 biomass target (7.76 million dry Mg)using less than
half of the identified suitable land, potentially offsetting 8–10% of transportation emissions. This work offers a replicable framework for climate-aligned biomass deployment and a just, sustainable bioeconomy.