Abstract
Aim Spatially explicit protections of coastal habitats determined on the
current distribution of species and ecosystems risk becoming obsolete in
100 years if the movement of species ranges outpaces management action.
Hence, a critical step of conservation is predicting the efficacy of
management actions in future. We aimed to determine how foundational,
habitat‐building species will respond to climate change in Fiji. Location
The Republic of Fiji. Methods We develop species distribution models
(SDMs) using MaxEnt, General Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees
and publicly available data from the Global Biodiversity Information
Facility to predict changes in distribution of suitable habitat for
mangrove forests, coral habitat, seagrass meadows and critical fisheries
invertebrates under several IPCC climate change scenarios in 2070 or 2100.
We then overlay predicted distribution models onto existing Fijian
protected area network to assess whether today's conservation
measures will afford protection to tomorrow's distributions. Results
We develop species distribution models (SDMs) using MaxEnt, General
Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees and publicly available data
from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to predict changes in
distribution of suitable habitat for mangrove forests, coral habitat,
seagrass meadows and critical fisheries invertebrates under several IPCC
climate change scenarios in 2070 or 2100. We then overlay predicted
distribution models onto existing Fijian protected area network to assess
whether today's conservation measures will afford protection to
tomorrow's distributions. Main conclusions Species distribution
models are a critical tool for conservation managers, as linking spatial
distribution data with future climate change scenarios can aid in the
creation and resiliency of protected area programmes. New protected area
designations should consider the future distribution of species to
maximize benefits to those taxa.